U.S. house prices rose in the third quarter of 2019, up 1.1 percent according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 4.9 percent from the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.6 percent from August.
FHFA produces the nation’s only public, freely available house price indexes (HPIs) that measure changes in single-family house prices based on data that cover all 50 states and over 400 American cities and extend back to the mid-1970s. The HPIs are built from tens of millions of home sales and offer insights about house price fluctuations at the national, census division, state, metro area, county, ZIP code, and census tract levels. The FHFA HPIs use a fully transparent methodology based upon a weighted, repeat-sales statistical technique to analyze transaction data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA releases data and reports on a quarterly and monthly basis. The FHFA HPI uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data, unless otherwise noted. Additional indexes are based on other data including refinances, FHA mortgages, and real property records. All the indexes can be downloaded from the FHFA website.
“House prices have risen every quarter for the last eight years,” said Dr. William Doerner, FHFA Supervisory Economist. “Relative to a year ago, market indices are still trending upward for the nation as a whole as well as in every census division, state, and the top 100 metro areas. Price gains, though, are continuing to slow their upward pace in a few cities with large housing markets.”
Significant Findings
- House prices have risen for 33 consecutive quarters across the United States.
- House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019. The top five states in annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho 11.6 percent; 2) Maine 7.9 percent; 3) Arizona 7.9 percent; 4) Utah 7.8 percent; and 5) Indiana 7.4 percent. The states showing the smallest annual appreciation were: 1) Illinois 1.9 percent; 2) Connecticut 2.2 percent; 3) Maryland 2.4 percent; 4) South Dakota 2.7 percent; and 5) Iowa 3.2 percent.
- House prices rose in all 100 of the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters. Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 11.1 percent. Prices were weakest in Camden, NJ (MSAD), where they increased 0.7 percent.
- Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 6.9 percent gain between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019 and a 1.8 percent increase in the third quarter of 2019. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the Middle Atlantic division, where prices rose by 4.0 percent between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019.
- FHFA produced Fact Sheets that include graphics on the Top 20 and Bottom 20 ranked Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. here: https://www.fhfa.gov/HPI-Fact-Sheets.
Tables and graphs showing home price statistics for metropolitan areas, states, census divisions, and the U.S. are included on the following pages.
Other Price Indexes
Most statistics in the quarterly HPI report reference price changes computed by FHFA’s “purchase-only” HPI. In some cases, however, the reported statistics reference alternative price measures. FHFA publishes—and makes available for download—three additional HPIs beyond the “purchase-only” series. Although they use the same general methodology, the three alternatives rely on slightly different datasets as follows:
- “Distress-Free” house price index. Sales of bank-owned properties and short sales are removed from the purchase-only dataset prior to estimation of the index.
- “Expanded-Data” house price index. Sales price information sourced from county recorder offices and from FHA-backed mortgages are added to the purchase-only data sample. This index is used annually to adjust the maximum conforming loan limits, which dictate the dollar amount of loans that can be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
- “All-Transactions” house price index. Appraisal values from refinance mortgages are added to the purchase-only data sample.
Data constraints preclude the production of all types of indexes for every geographic area, but multiple index types are generally available. For individual states, for instance, three types of indexes are available. The various indexes tend to correlate closely over the long-term, but short-term differences can be significant.
Note
- NEW – Check out our interactive U.S. map
- The next monthly HPI report (including data through October 2019) will be released December 31, 2019 and the next quarterly HPI report (including data for the fourth quarter of 2019 and monthly data for December) will be released February 25, 2020.
- Future HPI release dates for 2020 are available at https://www.fhfa.gov/HPI.
- Follow @FHFA on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, and YouTube for more HPI news.